April 24th news, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman recently stated that the heat around Apple's Vision Pro headset has cooled down, with sales in some stores dropping to just a few units per week. Guo Mingji, an analyst at TF International Securities, recently released an investment note, believing that due to a demand decline that "seriously exceeded expectations," Apple has reduced the shipment volume of the Vision Pro headset.
Here is the complete forecast from Guo Mingji：
The latest survey is as follows：
Apple has revised down the shipment volume of Vision Pro for 2024 to 400,000 to 450,000 units (compared to the previous market expectations of 700,000 to 800,000 units or more).
Apple cut orders even before the launch of the Vision Pro headset in non-U.S. markets, indicating that the demand in the U.S. market has dropped sharply beyond expectations, causing Apple to adopt a more conservative outlook on demand in non-U.S. markets.
Apple is currently reevaluating and adjusting its roadmap for headset development, so it may not launch a successor or derivative model of the Vision Pro headset in 2025 (contrary to previous expectations of new models in 2H25/4Q25). Apple currently expects that the shipment volume of Vision Pro in 2025 may decline year-on-year.
The reduction in orders for Vision Pro suggests that the development of the following new trends may be lower than market expectations.
Mixed Reality (MR) headsets
The challenges for Vision Pro lie in addressing the lack of key applications, pricing, and comfort while maintaining a transparent (see-through) user experience. In contrast, while VR is also a niche market, it at least has proven successful applications (like games) and better market visibility compared to MR.
Pancake
As the optical specification upgrades for smartphones have slowed down in recent years, investors have been hoping that higher-priced lenses, such as Pancake lenses, will become a new growth driver for the optical industry. The lower-than-expected shipment volume of Vision Pro will likely result in Pancake lenses contributing less revenue to the optical industry than investors anticipated.
Micro OLED
Vision Pro and MR headsets are the most critical applications for Micro OLED. With the growth trends of key applications not meeting expectations, the timeline for mass production of Micro OLED and its adoption in other small-sized consumer electronic devices is likely to be delayed.
Source: IT Home
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